10 Kentucky House races to watch

by Tom Loftus, @TomLoftus_CJ –

FRANKFORT, Ky. – Kentucky Republicans say they have years of momentum and that a big voter turnout in November for a presidential election will help them seize majority control of the Kentucky House of Representatives for the first time since 1921.

“A fantastic chance,” said Tres Watson, spokesman for the Republican Party of Kentucky. “We have good candidates. And the demographics of a presidential year combined with how Kentuckians are voting more and more Republican at the federal level make us highly competitive.”

But Democrats survived an GOP aggressive challenge in 2014 and say that momentum swung back their way in March when Democrats won three of four special elections for vacant House seats.

“I feel very strong about our prospects to hold onto our majority,” said Rep. Sannie Overly, of Paris, who chairs the House Democratic Caucus and the Kentucky Democratic Party. “We’ve heard this from those folks (Republicans) before. And we have consistently out-recruited, out-worked and out-performed their candidates. This year is no different.”

Democrats now hold a 53-47 majority in the House, which remains the only legislative chamber in any southern state in Democratic control.

The stakes are extremely high. Republicans are sure to retain a big majority in the Kentucky Senate in November, and flipping the House would allow the GOP and Republican Gov. Matt Bevin to pass much more of their conservative agenda.

Many Republicans believe the presidential race pitting Republican Donald Trump against Democrat Hillary Clinton will help many of their candidates – particularly in Eastern Kentucky, where Clinton’s March comment about putting miners out of work resonates loudly despite her efforts to say the comment was a mistake and taken out of context.

But Overly said, “The Trump campaign appears to be imploding on a daily basis. Who knows what it will look like in November? He may well be a drag on their ticket.”

House Speaker Greg Stumbo, D-Prestonsburg, said Democrats plan to run against Bevin on the funding cuts he initiated to universities and his veto of a budget provision that would have expanded preschool eligibility.

“I don’t believe the governor’s message is popular,” he said. “We ran against it in the special elections, we’ll run against it again this fall.”

But Watson said Bevin helps Republicans because voters see that the new budget Bevin shaped takes a major step in addressing the state’s pension funding crisis he said was ignored under Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear. And Watson is emphasizing recent “under-reported” positive announcements by Bevin such as an $18 million program to fix up state parks.

The House races will be hugely expensive. Super PACs supporting each side will draw in big money from out of state. But the GOP should hold a big money advantage because it holds nearly all the reins of Kentucky political power now – particularly the governorship. Still, Overly said, “We are aggressively working with our candidates to put together solid fundraising plans…I expect we’ll have the resources we need.”

There are 65 contested House races on the November ballot. All Democratic leaders – including Stumbo and Overly – face GOP opposition. And interviews with partisans on either side more than 20 races are in play. Here’s a quick, early look at 10 races that are surely to be among the most hotly contested.

District 3: (McCracken)

Incumbent Gerald Watkins, D-Paducah v. Joni S. Hogancamp, R-Paducah. Watkins, a professor at Western Kentucky Community and Technical College, is one of several House Democrats the Republicans say they can beat. But Watkins faced an aggressive Republican challenge in winning re-election in 2014. Hogancamp is co-owner of a business called Daring People Services.

District 12: (Webster, McLean, parts of Daviess and Hopkins)

Incumbent Jim Gooch, R-Providence v. Jim Townsend, D-Dixon. Gooch switched from Democratic to Republican party after Bevin won governorship last November. Democrats say they have a good chance at winning the seat back with Townsend, the Webster County judge-executive. And, while voter registration has meant little in so many elections for more than a decade, 65 percent of the district’s voters remain registered Democrats.

District 23: (Barren, small part of Warren):

Steve Riley, R-Glasgow v. Danny Basil, D-Glasgow. This is an open seat caused by the retirement of Democrat Johnny Bell. Both Riley, a retired teacher, coach and principal, and Basil, an attorney, won their primary elections by comfortable margins. In 2014 Democrat Bell won election with 7,504 votes to 6,310 for Republican Jeff Jobe.

District 38: (Jefferson)

Incumbent Denny Butler, R-Louisville v. McKenzie Cantrell, D-Louisville. Like Gooch, Butler switched to become a Republican after Bevin’s election, and Democrats say they’ve got a good shot at reclaiming the district. Cantrell won impressive landslide victory in Democratic primary over Metro Councilman Dan Johnson. Butler, a retired Louisville Police homicide sergeant, was unopposed in the Republican primary and won election in 2014 as a Democrat without opposition.

District 50: (Nelson)

Chad McCoy, R-Bardstown v. James DeWeese, D-Bardstown. This is another open seat – caused by the retirement of Republican David Floyd, who has held the seat since 2005. McCoy is an attorney and DeWeese a business agent for Teamsters Local 89. In 2014 Republican Floyd won with 7,933 votes to 6,947 for Democrat Audrey Haydon.

District 62: (Scott, Owen, small part of Fayette)

Incumbent Chuck Tackett, D-Georgetown v. Phillip Pratt, R-Georgetown. This is a rematch of the March special election which Democrat Tackett, a farmer, narrowly won with 3,463 votes to 3,210 for Pratt, who runs a large landscaping business. In 2014 Republican Ryan Quarles (now state agriculture commissioner) easily defeated Tackett in the general election with 9,163 votes to Tackett’s 6,439.

District 70: (Mason, Fleming, Bracken, Robertson)

John VanMeter, R-Maysville v. John Sims Jr., D-Flemingsburg. An open seat caused by retirement of Democrat Mike Denham who has represented the district since 2001. Sims, a Fleming County magistrate, was unopposed in Democratic primary. VanMeter, an attorney, won Republican primary over James Johnson. Denham won election in 2014 without opposition.

District 74: (Montgomery, Powell, Menifee)

Incumbent David Hale, R-Wellington v. Democrat James Davis, D-Mount Sterling. Democrats say Davis, an attorney, has a good chance at ousting first term incumbent Hale. And, for what it’s worth, the district is heavily Democratic – 68.5 percent – by registration. But Hale, a pastor and former Department of Fish and Wildlife employee, won by nearly 2,000 votes two years ago in ousting then-incumbent Democrat Richard Henderson.

District 91: (Breathitt, Estill, Lee, Owsley, part of Madison). Incumbent Cluster Howard, D-Jackson v. Toby Herald, R-Beattyville. This is a rematch of a 2014 general election in which Howard, dean and student ombudsman at Hazard Community and Technical College won by a mere 14 votes.

District 94: (Letcher, Pike)

Frank D. Justice II, R-Pikeville v. Angie Hatton, D-Whitesburg. An open seat caused by the retirement of Democrat Leslie Combs, and one Republicans think they can win that has long been in the Democratic column. Both Justice, a former Pikeville mayor, and Hatton, an attorney, had to win primary elections in May to get here. Combs has held the seat since 2007 and won without opposition in 2014.